2026 Kickoff: What Conejo Valley Buyers & Sellers Should Watch First

Hey Conejo Valley friends! We’re just getting into 2026, and if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Westlake Village, Agoura Hills, or anywhere in Ventura or LA County, this is your straightforward, local-focused briefing. The market feels more balanced heading into Q1—more inventory for buyers to browse, prices holding steady in our desirable area, and less of the wild competition from past years. With fresh January 2026 data in mind, let’s cover the early signals, how to interpret listing activity, and practical steps for sellers gearing up for spring and buyers crafting smart offers. All while keeping our signature SoCal lifestyle in focus: excellent schools, nearby trails, and that easy access to LA.

Understanding the Early 2026 Market Signals

Right out of the gate in 2026, the real estate scene in Conejo Valley is looking more balanced. Statewide data from the California Association of Realtors points to modest growth, which trickles down to our local vibes. Home sales across California are expected to tick up by about 2%, hitting around 274,400 deals for the year. That’s a small bump, but it signals folks are getting back in the game as things stabilize.

Locally, we’re seeing inventory creep up—active listings are about 23% higher than this time last year, giving buyers more room to breathe. Homes are hanging around longer too, averaging 65 days on the market versus 50 a year ago. This shift means less pressure and more chances to negotiate for all of us.

Price Trends and What They Mean

Conejo Valley median home prices are hovering in the $1.1 million range early this year, up a touch from last fall but mostly flat overall. Statewide, expect a 3.6% rise to $905,000 by year’s end, per the same C.A.R. forecast. No wild jumps here—prices are protected by our area’s appeal, like top-rated schools and safe neighborhoods. Watch for micro-trends: Updated homes with big yards in family spots like Newbury Park might hold steady or edge up, while luxury pads over $2 million in Westlake Village could need sharper pricing to move.

If prices stay stable, it opens doors for first-timers and move-up folks alike. But keep an eye on January listings—if they flood in without matching buyer interest, we could see some softening.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

Rates are dipping to around 6% this year, down from 6.2% now, making loans more doable for everyday buyers. Affordability’s inching up to 18% statewide, a small win after tough times. In our neck of the woods, this could pull in more relocators from pricier LA  or relocators drawn to Amgen jobs. In Conejo Valley, lower rates mean stronger offers or better listing positioning—factor them into your plans.

How to Read Early Listing Activity in Q1

Q1 is prime time to gauge the year’s pulse. Start by tracking new listings weekly—tools like Zillow or local MLS feeds can help. If inventory keeps climbing (we’re already up from 361 to 444 active homes year-over-year), it points to a buyer-friendly setup. Days on market is another big tell: Longer times mean sellers might budge on price or fixes.

Don’t ignore the “sold” stories either. Compare ask-to-sell ratios—if homes close at 98% of list or below, negotiation room is growing. Balance this with our local charm: Spots near Conejo’s parks and trails stay hot, even in a cooler market.

Major Developments Shaping the Local Market

Big projects are underway that could influence demand, jobs, and desirability in key spots. These aren’t just headlines—they directly tie into why our neighborhoods stay attractive.

  • Amgen’s $600M Expansion: The biotech giant broke ground on a major science and innovation center at its Thousand Oaks headquarters (in Newbury Park area). This investment, announced in 2025 and underway now, brings hundreds of high-paying jobs and reinforces the area’s status as a biotech hub. Expect continued interest from professionals in family-oriented spots nearby, boosting long-term value. Check details here.
  • The Sanctuary in Newbury Park: Construction is progressing on this luxury apartment community at the former Timber School site on Newbury Road. Featuring market-rate and affordable units, it’s adding modern housing options that appeal to young professionals and families. This helps diversify inventory and supports the area’s growth without overwhelming single-family appeal. More on the project here.
  • The Regency Project in Agoura Hills: The old Regency Theatres site is being redeveloped into a mixed-use spot with 278 apartments (including affordable units) and commercial space. Demolition wrapped up, and building is ramping up, adding housing density near the 101. It could draw more residents and support local amenities, though watch for any traffic or community impacts. Learn more here.

These developments signal ongoing investment in jobs and housing, which sustains demand in our family-friendly, nature-rich communities.

Top Signals Shaping Pricing and Negotiation Power

Key Q1 indicators to watch:

  • Inventory Levels: Upward trend favors buyers with more choices and leverage on repairs or terms
  • Buyer Demand: Steady from biotech workers and commuters keeps well-prepped homes competitive
  • Economic Factors: Lower rates encourage activity; major projects like Amgen’s add job stability
  • Neighborhood Appeal: Areas near trails or schools hold strong even in balanced markets
Quick comparison table:

Signal

Buyer Advantage

Seller Advantage

Inventory

High (more options, longer DOM)

Low (fast sales, offers)

Rates

Low (improved affordability)

High (more buyers qualify)

Pricing

Stable (negotiation space)

Rising (stronger positioning)

Demand

Moderate (leverage on offers)

High (potential multiple bids)

Major Developments

Job growth draws buyers

Enhances long-term desirability

This setup makes 2026 feel collaborative and approachable.

Action Steps for Sellers Preparing a Spring Listing

Get ready early:

  • Price Realistically: Use current comps; avoid overpricing in a balanced market
  • Enhance Appeal: Refresh kitchens, yards, or staging to showcase indoor-outdoor living
  • Time Strategically: List when inventory dips or highlight local perks like trails
  • Leverage Developments: Note proximity to Amgen or new amenities to attract buyers

These steps can strengthen your position.

Strategies for Buyers Planning a Competitive Offer

Your moment for thoughtful moves:

  • Assemble Experts: Work with locals familiar with pockets like Newbury Park or Agoura Hills.
  • Monitor Trends: Target homes with extended market time for better deals; include contingencies where possible.
  • Budget Smart: Use lower rates; get pre-approved to stand out.
  • Focus on Lifestyle: Prioritize family zones or commute-friendly spots—our open spaces and community vibe make it worthwhile.

Patience pays off with more choices available.

Conejo Valley’s blend of suburban calm, biotech strength, and natural beauty keeps it special as we move through 2026. Whether upsizing near top schools or downsizing with views, these early trends support informed decisions. Data as of January, 2026—markets evolve, so stay current.

Ready for a personalized take on your situation? Request your 10-Minute Market Pulse Call at (805) 551-7341—let’s discuss smart next steps just for you.

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